Laburpena

Joseph A. Tainter antropologo eta akademikoak 1988an argitaratutako liburu batean defendatu zuen gizarte konplexuak kolapsora behartuta daudela konplexutasunaren errendimendu beherakorrak direla eta. Ondoren, Ugo Bardi irakasleak gidatutako talde batek kolapsorako joera hori egiaztatu du, sistemen dinamikaren modelo sinple baten bidez, ekonomia zirkularrik eta energia berriztagarrien aprobetxamendurik gabeko gizarte batean.

Ugo Bardiren taldearen analisi-esparrutik atera gabe, lan honek erakusten du, ordea, gizarte konplexu bat egoera egonkorrean eta kolapsotik urrun mantendu daitekeela baliabideen zirkulartasun-maila nahikoa lortzen badu, energia berriztagarriaren fluxuen aprobetxamenduan oinarriturik. Era berean, ezinbestekoa da zibilizazioaren funtzionamenduak berrelikadura negatiboak izatea, ekonomiaren hazkundea kontrolatuz, egoera egonkorraren lorpena eta ezegonkortasunen aurreko erresilientzia bermatzeko.

Inurriek adibide eder bat ematen digute: posible da sistema sozial konplexu bat lortzea, ingurunean inpaktu handia baina onuragarria duena. Konplexutasunak aukera eman die inurriei hamarnaka milioi urtez eboluzionatzeko, kolapsoa saihestuz.

Egungo zibilizazioaren kolapso-arriskuaren arrazoi nagusia ez da konplexutasuna, ezta ekonomiaren tamaina ere. Kolapsoa saihesteko, zirkularitatea handitu behar da, eta, batez ere, berrelikadura negatiboen bidez kontrol-mekanismoak sortu behar dira, egoera egonkor eta iraunkor batera eramango gaituztenak, non giza zibilizazioak bere beharrak ase ahal izango dituen, planetaren gainerako funtzionamenduarekin modu bateragarrian eta koherentean.

The anthropologist and academic Joseph A. Tainter argued, in a book published in 1988, that complex societies are bound to collapse due to diminishing marginal returns of complexity. Subsequently, a team led by Professor Ugo Bardi has verified this tendency to collapse in a simple system dynamics model of a society without a circular economy or renewable energy use.

Without leaving the framework of analysis of Ugo Bardi’s team, this work shows, however, that a complex society can remain in a steady state and away from collapse if it achieves a sufficient degree of circularity of resources, sustained on the use of renewable energy flows. It is also essential that the functioning of civilization presents negative feedbacks that, by controlling the growth of the economy, guarantee the achievement of steady state and resilience to instabilities.

Ants offer us a beautiful example that it is possible to achieve a complex social system with an enormous but beneficial impact on the environment, and that complexity also allows to evolve over tens of millions of years avoiding collapse.

The main cause of the risk of collapse of the current civilization is not the complexity or size of the economy. Avoiding collapse requires increasing circularity and above all creating control mechanisms through negative feedbacks that will lead us to a sustainable steady state, in which human civilization can satisfy its needs in a way that is compatible and coherent with the functioning of the rest of the planet.